Under the influence of multiple factors such as dual control of energy consumption and power rationing, the supply and demand pattern of the chemical industry is out of balance, and the prices of various chemical raw materials are rising steadily. Statistics from Zhongyu Information show that since the beginning of this year, the prices of 50 categories of chemical products, including liquid chlorine, natural gas, caustic soda, and acetic acid, have risen to varying degrees. Among them, the price of 16 types of chemical raw materials has more than doubled during the year .

　　"It has been especially obvious since September that the supply of raw materials such as hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, and hydrochloric acid used in our production process cannot be guaranteed sometimes, and the price has at least doubled this year." Mr. Li, the relevant person in charge of a textile enterprise in Nantong area ( Pseudonym) revealed in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily.

　　The wave of price increases is fierce. During the interview, the reporter learned that a "butterfly effect" caused by rising raw material prices is affecting the entire industrial chain. Faced with the cost pressure brought about by rising raw material prices, midstream and downstream enterprises are in a dilemma between "increasing" or "not increasing" their products, and are on the road to increasing or already increasing prices.

　　The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies

　　Raw material prices are rising

　　In September of this year, Yunnan Province issued the "Notice on Resolutely Doing a Good Job in Double Control of Energy Consumption", requiring that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production lines in the yellow phosphorus industry from September to December 2021 shall not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 ( That is, a 90% reduction in production).

　　Under the influence of the news of 90% production limit, superimposed low inventory level, environmental protection supervision and power cuts, the overall operating rate of the yellow phosphorus industry is at a low level, and the price has risen sharply in a short period of time. There was once a super high quotation of 70,000 yuan/ton in the market .

　　"Not only yellow phosphorus, but also the prices of chemical raw materials including propiconazole and glycine are rising." A deputy general manager of a fine chemical company in Nantong told reporters, "During the National Day, the yellow phosphorus market has a price but no market. The mainstream price is temporarily stable. After the National Day holiday, most companies still have no quotations, some companies offer 57,000 yuan/ton to 60,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction is about 55,000 yuan per ton, which is a single negotiation.”

　　"Since the beginning of this year, most chemical raw materials have been in this state. The rise and fall of commodity prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Under the two-high policy, the environmental protection requirements of chemical companies have become stricter, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have been restricted. , the supply side is relatively tight or missing.” Liu Dongyuan, director of the plasticizer industry chain of Zhongyu Information, told reporters.

　　On October 14, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of chemical raw materials rose by 20.7%.

　　The shock wave of price hikes is transmitted layer by layer

　　Downstream price increase to hedge cost pressure

　　"Upstream is rising, so we can only follow suit. The price of glyphosate has risen from the previous 20,000 yuan/ton to 70,000 yuan/ton. The production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises in the domestic glyphosate industry continues to withdraw, and many existing glyphosate enterprises have full production facilities. The load is running, and the overall supply of goods is tight." A deputy general manager of a fine chemical company in Nantong told reporters.

　　"The price of raw materials has also been rising, which can be said to be 'one price a day'. However, because we participate in more projects in public bidding, it is impossible to increase the price of products at will. At present, there is still no price increase. It’s hard to say how long.” Xiao Wang, sales manager of a pesticide manufacturer in Nantong, said in an interview with reporters.

　　The price increase of raw materials is no different from a "big test" of the industry. It tests the influence of enterprises in the industrial chain on channels and the brand power in the minds of consumers.

　　"This round of price increases is transmitted level by level. From raw materials to production processes to end product prices are all rising. This is different from product price increases in a certain link in the past. It is a process from top to bottom of the industrial chain. An 'inflation wave'." A worker in the chemical industry in Guangzhou said in an interview.

　　"The price of raw materials has increased, and the cost of enterprises has increased. The price increase is certain. However, in actual operation, the transmission of price increases in the industrial chain is sometimes not smooth. Rigid demand and some high-frequency products can be increased in price, and non-rigid demand price increases will definitely be affected. Once the sentiment of resistance arises, the terminal demand will be suppressed." Liu Dongyuan told reporters that in the short term, a supply-demand relationship will not be eased soon after it occurs, and this trend will continue at least until the first quarter of next year. It's getting better.

　　Talking about the rise of raw materials, Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, "The current rise in raw materials is the result of multiple global factors, not a single dual control of energy consumption. As a result, while upstream coal, oil, and natural gas energy prices are rising, the new energy industry cannot afford the huge energy demand. Under the background of no improvement in the supply side, there is a large demand for electricity on the demand side, resulting in a lack of electricity throughout. "

　　Pan Helin said, "The rise in raw material prices will continue, but it should not exceed the peak period of winter electricity consumption. For enterprises, they must actively strive for production capacity. After all, under the current background of low inventory, the products produced The sales are still relatively optimistic, and most market segments are in short supply. Electric power companies or large-scale industrial futures contracts and hedging to lock in the cost price.”